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Melbourne Cup Form Guide - how to pick the winner of this year's Melbourne Cup.

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The Melbourne Cup is one of the hardest races to assess when it comes to reading the form guide, which could be why so many people just pick a name or a number and hope for the best.


Want to improve your odds of winning on the Melbourne Cup? It's as much about eliminating horses from your calculations as it is about the ones you want to include.


Here are a few pointers that could help you narrow down the field of 24 runners to your top two or three - ok, how about your top eight?

Boys or Girls? The vast majority of Melbourne Cup winners are male horses aged 4, 5, or 6.


Why? Because the Cup is a handicap and these horses usually have less wins on record at this level, so receive less weight to carry. Like an athlete in their early twenties, they are also at their peak of career fitness, which is a crucial factor to consider in this tough two mile race.


The last horse aged over 7 to win was the 8yo gelding Catalogue in 1938. There have been a handful of exceptional mares aged between 4 and 7 years, including the outstanding Makybe Diva.


3 year old colts & geldings have gone close but not won in the modern era of the Cup, the last was a colt named Skipton in 1941. There have been just 3 fillies to win, but not since 1921.


Weight is important too, the last horse to carry over 58kg to victory was Think Big in 1975. Statistically, a male horse aged 4, 5 or 6 carrying under 57kg is the way to go.

Locals v Internationals? - Check Melbourne Cup Odds HERE>

The Australian horse racing industry has an ongoing problem when it comes to training stayers.


Strangely, there are very few races in Australia over the Melbourne Cup distance, just one or two in each state every year. Most races are over 1000m-2000m, the longest race on the average card is 2400m. Consequently most Australian horses are trained to win over the shorter trips and the strongest bloodlines feature sprinter-milers.


Aussie owners wanting to win a Melbourne Cup have taken to importing stayers from all over the world to try their luck in the big one. Some remain with their overseas trainers & jockeys until they race in Australia, others are sent to local trainers first to get acclimatised.


You will be including imported runners in your selections. But who?

The International Invasion.


In recent time most winners of the Melbourne Cup have been imported runners from Europe. What was good about them? They were true staying types, not badly weighted and coming into the race with winning form over a staying trip in the last 6 months. Look for horses with a top three placing over the distance or beyond. A local jockey is a plus, but not essential.


Godolphin has been bringing a high class team of runners to Melbourne for many years (it is the Emirates Melbourne Cup, after all) but while they have come close they are yet to win. They began operating a permanent racing stable in Australia in 2014, now all they have to do is get some fresh young stayers on the ground instead of dragging in their tired old dogs and they might be in with a shot.


Japanese horses ran the Quinella in 2006, but could not return for the next couple of years due to the equine flu outbreak. All runners from Japan must be considered very carefully, in 2014 Admire Rakti won the Caulfield Cup before starting favourite in the Melbourne Cup.


Local owners are well aware most Australian bred horses don't have the legs to win the Cup these days, so look for an imported runner with local connections - such Americain (2010), Fiorente (2013), Protectionist (2014) and Almandin (2016). 


Local Strengths.


Many imported horses are transferred to local stables before the race and some visitors for the Cup remain in Australia to contest the Autumn feature races in Sydney such as the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Australian Cup at Flemington. If a locally bred runner can make it's way into the placings it will be down in the weights with winning form in the last six months over 2400m or more, such as Prince Of Penzance (2015).


One more thing, if the Spring weather in Melbourne has been fine the track may be quite firm which often doesn't suit the European visitors. Happy punting in the Melbourne Cup!

Lead Up Form? - BET NOW>

Australian races with the best lead up form to follow are:

Lexus Stakes

Turnbull Stakes

Herbert Powers Stakes

Bart Cummings

Geelong Cup

Caulfield Cup

Cox Plate

  

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